Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 151.507934 176.585418 205.631497 242.025903 286.778898 340.495411 410.582853
2025-11-16 116.470763 146.147382 183.912243 236.371054 308.776679 407.384461 555.788909
2025-11-23 95.963550 126.664791 168.383383 230.811803 324.764193 465.974614 704.906003
2025-11-30 88.046440 121.476508 169.626230 246.736521 372.614040 580.872204 977.885404
2025-12-07 78.901210 112.634009 163.473567 249.416536 399.370077 668.436985 1238.251288
2025-12-14 72.354037 106.452120 159.968168 255.008255 431.459712 773.730176 1578.801690
2025-12-21 65.866247 99.356249 153.726100 254.409550 451.675356 861.792483 1924.677362
2025-12-28 63.422975 98.343457 157.210889 271.512400 509.832729 1047.821339 2619.608464
2026-01-04 60.591857 96.258696 158.426683 284.409145 562.585467 1241.546153 3475.285921
2026-01-11 57.673177 93.628358 158.212946 294.310516 611.329248 1445.221688 4534.886729
2026-01-18 54.476729 90.117172 155.841384 299.220367 649.703191 1637.719203 5743.520533
2026-01-25 51.124992 85.954241 151.663604 299.434838 676.538642 1809.011081 7057.933891
2026-02-01 47.283071 80.633213 144.830047 293.165890 686.736656 1939.814819 8389.953033
2026-02-08 43.852805 75.779175 138.401565 286.849303 695.664830 2073.758604 9963.876282
2026-02-15 40.754512 71.271490 132.158996 279.914692 701.123209 2199.755202 11725.255091
2026-02-22 40.277519 71.844564 136.641902 300.215832 794.941577 2730.481213 17665.160798
2026-03-01 38.463919 69.556652 134.657191 303.640412 836.934978 3075.288792 23194.717711
2026-03-08 37.073248 68.000050 134.101694 310.785927 894.301526 3539.599780 31931.460030
2026-03-15 35.256100 65.393773 130.867909 310.020551 923.886045 3890.792083 41121.791638
2026-03-22 35.004232 66.069078 135.307110 331.929891 1046.924359 4890.949565 68739.828920
2026-03-29 34.389968 65.901039 137.723161 348.508032 1157.304476 5961.964201 112579.709748
2026-04-05 33.574730 65.214269 138.790975 361.267926 1258.359573 7120.965037 183806.213696
2026-04-12 32.475969 63.797147 137.872355 367.605384 1334.488211 8213.539812 288471.154825